Title:
Economic Analysis of Tourism in the Conflict-ridden GCC: Geopolitical Instability, Revenue Disruptions, and Resilience Strategies

Authors:
Dr. Shankar Subramanian Iyer, Dr. Rajesh Arora, Dr Divakar G.M, Dr Brinitha Raji, Prof. Dr Abhijit Ganguly, Dr Soofi Anwar, Ankitha Mahesh, Dr Fernando ErañaReyes, Dr Raman Subramanian, Dr Sangeeta Malhotra, UK

Abstract:

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states—Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—have pursued ambitious tourism development strategies as part of broader economic diversification initiatives to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon revenues. However, these efforts have been significantly challenged by persistent geopolitical instability, including the Yemen conflict, the 2017 Qatar blockade, regional terrorism, and the compounding effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This article provides a comprehensive economic analysis of tourism development in the conflict-ridden GCC region, examining revenue disruptions, employment impacts, and foreign direct investment patterns across the six member states. Employing a systematic review of 60 peer-reviewed studies and utilizing panel data analysis frameworks, this research reveals that while geopolitical risks have created substantial short-term disruptions to tourist arrivals and revenues, GCC states have demonstrated remarkable resilience through strategic diversification of source markets, mega-project investments, and policy innovations. The Qatar blockade (2017-2021) paradoxically accelerated tourism market diversification, with Qatar achieving 98% growth in 2019 through strategic pivoting to Asian, European, and American markets. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 has catalyzed unprecedented tourism infrastructure investments, targeting 100 million annual visitors by 2030. The UAE has successfully leveraged its political stability and world-class infrastructure to maintain tourism growth despite regional turbulence. This study contributes to tourism economics literature by developing a comprehensive resilience framework for conflict-affected destinations and provides evidence-based policy recommendations for sustainable tourism development in geopolitically volatile regions. Key findings indicate that tourism market diversification, strategic mega-investments, regional cooperation, and adaptive crisis management are critical determinants of tourism resilience in the GCC context.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51505/IJEBMR.2026.10607