Title:
When Gold Nears 90°: Angle Trend Analysis for Detecting Market Overheating and Bubbles

Authors:
Lie Chun Pong, China

Abstract:

This research introduces a geometric angle-of-ascent metric (Nears 90° Angle Trend Analysis) as an innovative new technical indicator to evaluate trend strength, overheating phases, and bubble risks in gold spot prices. Using monthly USD per troy ounce data from 12 months, trend angles are calculated based on 12-month simple moving averages (SMAs). Values exceeding the 95th percentile (87.95° to 88.2°) indicate rapid speculative growth. Four different trend stages are identified via angle changes, with the 2025–2026 increase reaching nearly 90°. Visual and statistical analyses validate the metric's effectiveness in detecting gold regime shifts, demonstrating the effective predictive utility of our golden model in commodity risk management and econometric studies.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51505/IJEBMR.2026.1210