Title:
Is There a Demand Pull or Supply Push Between Southwest Border Apprehensions and Employment in the United States?

Authors:
Ernst Coupet, Jr., USA

Abstract:

The effects of immigration on a host country’s economy and welfare have been widely studied. Little research has been done on the causality between immigration patterns and economic factors. The purpose of this study is to empirically test the immigration theory of labor supply-demand pull. The author uses a Vector Error Correction Model and annual data to determine if Southwest Border apprehensions Granger-cause employment level changes in the U.S. The results suggest that U.S. employment and physical capital investments Granger-cause Southwest Border apprehensions in the short run, while U.S. employment, investments, and economic growth Granger-cause SW Border apprehensions in the long run. Shocks to employment and physical investments have nonlinear effects on Southwest Border apprehensions. A 1-million-unit annual increase in employment in the United States leads to a decrease of 80,000 Southwest Border apprehensions the following year. This is followed by an increase of 67,922 apprehensions the year after. This empirical evidence supports the theory that U.S. employment creates demand for Southwest Border apprehensions, not the other way around.

 DOI: https://doi.org/10.51505/IJEBMR.2025.9115